Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Rare-earth magnets & motorsII · Batteries & energy densityIII · EO/IR & thermal sensorsIV · RF, EW & detectionV · Autonomy computeVI · Airframes & primesVII · Comms, datalinks & PNTVIII · NDAA-compliant supply chainIX · Interceptors & effectorsX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
November 2026
- 10highPolicyExpiry of China's one-year suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controlsIf Beijing lets the suspension lapse, licensing snaps back on Dy/Tb-bearing NdFeB magnets and extraterritorial re-exports, instantly repricing the scarce ex-China magnet and heavy-RE capacity drones depend on.
January 2027
- 01highPolicyNDAA §844/§854 ban on Chinese-melted or fabricated NdFeB/SmCo magnets in DoD systems takes effectDefense drone primes must certify magnets free of Chinese processing at every stage or face contract termination and False Claims Act liability, forcing demand onto the small pool of compliant capacity at MP, USAR and Vulcan.
Past
- 2026-09-01Commercial UAV Expo 2026 (Las Vegas, Sep 1-3)
- 2026-08-06MP Materials Q2 2026 earnings