Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Rare-earth magnets & motorsII · Batteries & energy densityIII · EO/IR & thermal sensorsIV · RF, EW & detectionV · Autonomy computeVI · Airframes & primesVII · Comms, datalinks & PNTVIII · NDAA-compliant supply chainIX · Interceptors & effectorsX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
June 2026
- 12ProgramSpaceX (SPCX) Nasdaq debut — largest IPO in history (prices June 11)DXYZ and XOVR lose their biggest private asset to public markets overnight (SpaceX is a smaller ~4% slice of VCX, ~11% of ARKVX), forcing the scarcity bid to either rotate into Anduril sleeves or collapse premiums toward look-through NAV.
August 2026
- 24ProgramPentagon Drone Dominance 'Gauntlet II' final competition and production down-select (late August)DIU's $300M+ Drone Dominance buy of up to 60,000 drones across ~10 vendors; Phase II unit caps are $4,500 (long-range strike) and $3,500 (close-quarters urban assault), $3,250 for munitions — the clearest demand signal for NDAA-compliant airframes and components.
September 2026
- 30PolicyFAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule (overdue vs. ~March 2026 executive-order target)The final BVLOS framework is the demand inflection for the US commercial drone base — most directly Skydio's domestic security and inspection franchise — and a re-rating trigger for everything fenced inside the Blue UAS moat.