The thesis
The drone war will be won by whoever owns the chokepoints.
Magnets, batteries, seekers, jammers, silicon. Drone Bottlenecks maps the physical supply chain behind every drone and counter-drone system — and the listed companies that own each choke. Own the strait, not the tanker.
The market stares at the obvious names. The binding constraints sit further upstream, where a handful of companies own each physical chokepoint — and most of them are not household names. That is exactly the point.
We walk the supply chain layer by layer. For each link we ask the same three questions: who physically owns the choke, what it would take for someone else to credibly compete, and what the next catalyst is that forces the market to reprice.
The answers land on a living map of 48 listed companies across 10 chokepoints — each with a conviction tier, a bull and bear case, a catalyst path, and the source trail behind every mapping. It is a research map, not a portfolio. Own the strait, not the tanker.
The chokepoints
- IRare-earth magnets & motors
NdFeB magnets are a China-controlled chokepoint sitting inside every drone motor.
- IIBatteries & energy density
Flight time is payload math; silicon-anode cells and non-Chinese LiPo supply are the unlock.
- IIIEO/IR & thermal sensors
Every ISR payload and interceptor seeker needs germanium optics and thermal cores.
- IVRF, EW & detection
The counter-UAS kill chain starts with detect/track; jamming is the cheap kill.
- VAutonomy compute
GPS-denied autonomy needs edge AI silicon that fits drone power budgets.
- VIAirframes & primes
The visible layer: platform makers and program-of-record winners.
- VIIComms, datalinks & PNT
Anti-jam GPS and resilient datalinks decide whether anything works in a contested environment.
- VIIINDAA-compliant supply chain
The anti-DJI choke: Blue UAS framework components and the reshoring of small-drone parts.
- IXInterceptors & effectors
The $1k-drone-vs-$1M-missile cost asymmetry forces new kinetic and directed-energy effectors.
- XPrivate giants & exposure vehicles
Anduril, Shield AI, Skydio, Epirus, Neros — the names that define the sector without tickers, and the listed funds that hold them.