VII
Comms, datalinks & PNT
Anti-jam GPS and resilient datalinks decide whether anything works in a contested environment.
Strip a drone program down to its failure modes and two dominate: the datalink gets jammed, or the GPS gets spoofed. Everything else is replaceable. That makes this chokepoint less about hardware than about certified resilience — and certification is where the moats live.
Assured GPS silicon. The U.S. military's anti-jam navigation runs on M-code, and the receiver franchise sits with BAE Systems' Cedar Rapids operation, acquired from Collins Aerospace in 2020. Its MicroGRAM-M — the world's smallest M-code receiver, built for small UAS and planned at roughly 20,000 units a year — is the part you cannot design out if you want a small U.S. drone that navigates under jamming: L3Harris and Raytheon also field security-certified M-code receivers under the military GPS user equipment program, but not at this form factor. The moat is not the silicon; it is GPS Directorate security certification plus ITAR, a multi-year gate any competitor must re-run from scratch.
Contested datalinks. Ukraine settled the architecture argument: self-healing MANET mesh beats point-to-point. Motorola Solutions paid $4.4 billion for Silvus Technologies (closed August 2025) largely because Silvus radios were already flying Ukrainian drones, while Doodle Labs' DIU-sponsored Helix Mesh Rider sits on the Blue UAS cleared list alongside cleared radios from Silvus, Microhard and Persistent Systems — and the Blue list is the de facto procurement gate for U.S. defense drones. One tier up, L3Harris holds the leading Link 16 terminal franchise after its $1.96B purchase of Viasat's tactical data link business — the standard itself is DoD/NATO-governed, and the BAE–Collins Data Link Solutions JV remains the other major terminal producer, but the installed-base moat is measured in decades of fielded terminals.
Out-of-band PNT and global C2. Iridium is quietly assembling the fallback for when GPS and line-of-sight RF both fail. Its Satelles acquisition delivered STL, a timing-and-location signal roughly 1,000x stronger than GPS broadcast from 66 crosslinked LEO satellites, with management guiding to $100M+ in annual service revenue by 2030 — while Iridium's service partners pitch Certus 100 as the global C2 failover link for BVLOS drones (partner marketing, but the L-band physics behind it is real). Global L-band spectrum rights plus a freshly replenished constellation is a moat no startup can spend through quickly.
What breaks it. Three attack vectors. From below: Ukraine-forged commodity radios at a tenth the price — but Blue UAS and NDAA country-of-origin rules lock them out of U.S. programs, which paradoxically hardens incumbent pricing. From above: Starlink-class broadband bolted onto drones, a real threat to niche L-band links but not to certified safety-of-flight C2. From the side: NextNav's terrestrial 900 MHz PNT network, a genuine GPS backup if — and only if — the FCC grants the band reconfiguration now in rulemaking. Every path runs through a regulator or a certification authority; none is fast.
The reprice. The FAA's Part 108 BVLOS rule — NPRM comments closed October 2025, final rule already past the executive order's 240-day deadline — converts redundant, certified C2 links from best practice into law for scaled drone operations, instantly enlarging the addressable market for every certified datalink and satcom vendor. Nearer term: Iridium's late-July print is the cleanest read on STL monetization. Motorola's August 6 quarter gives integration color on Silvus, but the organic-growth reveal waits for the Q3 print around November — the first quarter that even partially laps the August 2025 close of the only at-scale drone MANET franchise the U.S. public market can buy (Codan's DTC unit trades in Sydney).
Who owns the choke
BAE Systems plc (ADR)
Owns the former Collins Aerospace military GPS business (acquired 2020) and builds the MicroGRAM-M, the world's smallest M-code anti-jam/anti-spoof GPS receiver designed for small UAS — the certification-gated component that lets U.S. drones navigate through jamming.
- Bull
- BAE's MicroGRAM-M, the world's smallest M-code anti-jam/anti-spoof GPS receiver for small UAS, is the certification-gated part that lets US drones navigate through jamming.
- Bear
- This is one specialized receiver line buried inside BAE Systems plc, an ADR whose vast portfolio dilutes any drone-PNT exposure to immateriality.
Doodle Labs
Private maker of the Helix Mesh Rider radio, one of several datalinks on DIU's Blue UAS cleared components list (alongside Silvus, Microhard and Persistent Systems), with DIU-sponsored development for NDAA-compliant small-drone links.
- Bull
- Doodle Labs' Helix Mesh Rider sits on DIU's Blue UAS cleared-components list with DIU-sponsored development, positioning it on the approved-parts shelf NDAA-compliant OEMs must buy from.
- Bear
- Doodle Labs is private with no listed exposure vehicle, and its radio competes directly against Silvus, Microhard and Persistent on the same cleared list.
Iridium Communications
Iridium's Satelles-derived STL service broadcasts a timing/location signal ~1,000x stronger than GPS from its 66-satellite crosslinked LEO constellation — the leading commercial GPS backup — while Certus 100 is becoming the default global command-and-control failover link for BVLOS drone operations.
- Bull
- Iridium owns the leading commercial GPS backup: its STL timing signal is ~1,000x stronger than GPS, while Certus 100 becomes the default global C2 failover for BVLOS drones.
- Bear
- Drone PNT and command-and-control are an emerging slice of Iridium's broader satellite-services revenue, so the thesis is more optionality than core driver.
L3Harris Technologies
VAMPIRE — combat-proven against drones in Ukraine since 2023 — entered high-volume production in Huntsville in March 2026, and the family now spans land, maritime, air and an EW 'Killcode' jamming variant, sitting atop L3Harris' broader EW and software-defined radio franchise.
- Bull
- L3Harris wins on counter-drone scale: VAMPIRE, combat-proven in Ukraine, entered high-volume Huntsville production atop a broad EW and software-defined radio franchise spanning land, sea and air.
- Bear
- VAMPIRE and EW sit inside L3Harris's enormous defense portfolio, so even strong counter-drone production is diluted across the whole company.
Mobilicom Limited
Israeli datalink/cybersecurity supplier (Nasdaq ADSs) whose SkyHopper PRO and PRO Lite were added to the DIU Blue UAS Framework component list in February 2025 — i.e., it is literally on the approved-parts shelf that NDAA-compliant drone OEMs must buy from. In May 2026 it announced design wins with two U.S. Tier-1 defense drone manufacturers for ISR platforms.
- Bull
- Mobilicom sits literally on the DIU Blue UAS Framework parts shelf via SkyHopper PRO/PRO Lite, and landed May 2026 design wins with two US Tier-1 defense drone makers for ISR platforms.
- Bear
- It is a thin speculative Nasdaq ADR whose datalinks compete on a crowded cleared-components list, leaving design wins to convert into durable revenue.
Motorola Solutions
Closed its $4.4B acquisition of Silvus Technologies in August 2025, acquiring the StreamCaster MANET radios that form self-healing, jam-resistant mesh datalinks for drones — battle-proven on Ukrainian UAS and the only at-scale drone mesh-radio franchise accessible in public markets.
- Bull
- Motorola owns the only at-scale public drone mesh-radio franchise via its $4.4B Silvus deal: StreamCaster MANET radios deliver jam-resistant datalinks battle-proven on Ukrainian UAS.
- Bear
- Silvus is a small bolt-on inside Motorola's vast public-safety and communications business, so drone datalinks barely register against the parent's scale.
NextNav Inc.
Petitioning the FCC to reconfigure the 902-928 MHz band into a nationwide terrestrial PNT network as a complement and backup to GPS — the leading domestic terrestrial alternative-PNT play, with a draft NPRM sent to OMB in March 2026.
- Bull
- NextNav is the leading domestic terrestrial alternative-PNT play, petitioning the FCC to turn the 902-928 MHz band into a nationwide GPS backup, with a draft NPRM sent to OMB in March 2026.
- Bear
- The thesis hinges entirely on an uncertain FCC band-reconfiguration outcome, making this a speculative, binary regulatory bet for the small-cap name.
Catalyst calendar
- 2026-07-28Iridium Q2 2026 earningsmediumCleanest quarterly read on STL/alternative-PNT monetization toward management's $100M+ service-revenue target and on Certus uptake as the global BVLOS C2 failover link.
- 2026-08-06Motorola Solutions Q2 2026 earnings (Silvus integration color)mediumColor on Silvus integration inside MSI. Note: the YoY base still contains zero Silvus (closed Aug 2025), so this is not yet an organic-growth read — the first partial lap is the Q3 2026 print (~Nov 2026).