Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Rare-earth magnets & motorsII · Batteries & energy densityIII · EO/IR & thermal sensorsIV · RF, EW & detectionV · Autonomy computeVI · Airframes & primesVII · Comms, datalinks & PNTVIII · NDAA-compliant supply chainIX · Interceptors & effectorsX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
High-impact · next 30 days
- 2026-11-10Expiry of China's one-year suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controls
November 2026
- 10highPolicyExpiry of China's one-year suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controlsIf Beijing lets the suspension lapse, licensing snaps back on Dy/Tb-bearing NdFeB magnets and extraterritorial re-exports, instantly repricing the scarce ex-China magnet and heavy-RE capacity drones depend on.
- 27highPolicyExpiry of China's suspension of the gallium/germanium/antimony export ban to the USIf the suspension lapses without renewal, germanium snaps back to full embargo (the military end-user ban never lifted), re-tightening IR optics supply overnight and repricing every de-China'd name in the chain.
December 2026
- 31highPolicyFAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule publicationThe final rule would unlock routine beyond-visual-line-of-sight commercial operations — the demand inflection for US-built commercial airframes after the NPRM drew 3,000+ comments and the EO's early-2026 deadline slipped.
January 2027
- 01highPolicyFCC Covered List exemptions sunset for Blue UAS and Buy American dronesWhen the Blue List and Buy American carve-outs lapse, foreign-made content loses FCC equipment authorization even in certified systems — a hard deadline forcing every U.S. OEM to lock in domestic component supply during 2026.
- 01highPolicyNDAA §844/§854 ban on Chinese-melted or fabricated NdFeB/SmCo magnets in DoD systems takes effectDefense drone primes must certify magnets free of Chinese processing at every stage or face contract termination and False Claims Act liability, forcing demand onto the small pool of compliant capacity at MP, USAR and Vulcan.
October 2027
- 01highPolicyNDAA Section 154 ban on Chinese batteries (CATL, BYD, EVE, Gotion, Envision, Hithium) takes effect for DoDStatutory hard stop on DoD procurement of Chinese-made batteries forces primes and drone OEMs to lock multi-year non-Chinese cell supply in advance — the demand transfer that underwrites Amprius, EnerSys Greenville, and Lyten capacity.
Past
- 2026-10-12AUSA 2026 Annual Meeting & Exposition, Washington DC (Oct 12-14)
- 2026-10-12AUSA Annual Meeting & Exposition 2026 (Oct 12-14, Washington DC)
- 2026-10-12AUSA Annual Meeting 2026 (Washington, DC, Oct 12-14)
- 2026-09-30FAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule expected (timing slipped after comment period reopened to Feb 11, 2026)
- 2026-09-30FAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule (overdue vs. ~March 2026 executive-order target)
- 2026-09-30FAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule publication
- 2026-09-30FAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule (expected H2 2026)
- 2026-09-30USAF CCA Increment 1 competitive production decision (targeted within FY2026)
- 2026-09-10LightPath fiscal Q4/FY2026 results
- 2026-09-01Commercial UAV Expo 2026 (Las Vegas, Sep 1-3)
- 2026-09-01Commercial UAV Expo 2026, Caesars Forum, Las Vegas (Sept 1-3)
- 2026-09-01Commercial UAV Expo 2026 (Las Vegas, Sept 1-3)
- 2026-08-27Ambarella Q2 FY2027 earnings
- 2026-08-26DroneShield 1H CY2026 results (ASX half-year report)
- 2026-08-26NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earnings
- 2026-08-24Pentagon Drone Dominance 'Gauntlet II' final competition and production down-select (late August)
- 2026-08-12Unusual Machines Q2 2026 results (Q1 was reported May 14; Q2 likely mid-August)
- 2026-08-06MP Materials Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-08-06Motorola Solutions Q2 2026 earnings (Silvus integration color)
- 2026-08-05Amprius Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-29Enovix Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-28RTX Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-28Iridium Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-22Teledyne Q2 2026 earnings (first print after LASSO award)
- 2026-07-15House floor vote on FY27 NDAA (H.R. 8800)
- 2026-07-15Army–RTX Coyote multi-year framework agreement details (guided to ~90 days from mid-April)
- 2026-07-08Senate Armed Services Committee FY27 NDAA markup (expected)
- 2026-06-30AV (AeroVironment) Q4 & FY2026 earnings
- 2026-06-30AeroVironment Q4 & FY2026 results (first full post-BlueHalo fiscal year)
- 2026-06-23AeroVironment FQ4/FY2026 earnings report
- 2026-06-12SpaceX (SPCX) Nasdaq debut — largest IPO in history (prices June 11)