Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Rare-earth magnets & motorsII · Batteries & energy densityIII · EO/IR & thermal sensorsIV · RF, EW & detectionV · Autonomy computeVI · Airframes & primesVII · Comms, datalinks & PNTVIII · NDAA-compliant supply chainIX · Interceptors & effectorsX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
High-impact · next 30 days
- 2026-09-30FAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule (expected H2 2026)
- 2026-09-30FAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule publication
- 2026-09-30FAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule (overdue vs. ~March 2026 executive-order target)
- 2026-09-30FAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule expected (timing slipped after comment period reopened to Feb 11, 2026)
September 2026
- 30highPolicyFAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule (expected H2 2026)A final Part 108 rule makes onboard detect-and-avoid and autonomous-navigation compute effectively mandatory equipment for scaled BVLOS operations, structurally expanding the autonomy-silicon TAM beyond defense.
- 30highPolicyFAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule publicationRoutine beyond-visual-line-of-sight operations scale commercial drone fleets, turning logistics and inspection operators into volume buyers of high-energy-density, non-Chinese cells; the rule slipped past its executive-order March 2026 target after the comment period was reopened.
- 30highPolicyFAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule (overdue vs. ~March 2026 executive-order target)The final BVLOS framework is the demand inflection for the US commercial drone base — most directly Skydio's domestic security and inspection franchise — and a re-rating trigger for everything fenced inside the Blue UAS moat.
- 30highPolicyFAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule expected (timing slipped after comment period reopened to Feb 11, 2026)Routine BVLOS at scale forces nationwide airspace awareness and conspicuity requirements, expanding the civil and critical-infrastructure drone-detection market the RF pure-plays serve.
- 30mediumProgramUSAF CCA Increment 1 competitive production decision (targeted within FY2026)The first mass-production award for an autonomous combat airframe — it would crown Anduril and/or General Atomics with scale economics and reprice the whole attritable-airframe complex, including Kratos' Valkyrie franchise.
October 2026
- 12lowConferenceAUSA Annual Meeting 2026 (Washington, DC, Oct 12-14)The Army's premier land-power expo is where EO/IR payload roadmaps, next-gen FLIR upgrades and counter-UAS interceptor awards get unveiled — a concentrated news window for every name in this chokepoint.
- 12lowConferenceAUSA Annual Meeting & Exposition 2026 (Oct 12-14, Washington DC)The Army's marquee venue where C-UAS effector downselects, Golden Dome architecture news and directed-energy fielding announcements (LOCUST, IFPC-HPM, LIDS increments) typically drop.
- 12lowConferenceAUSA 2026 Annual Meeting & Exposition, Washington DC (Oct 12-14)The Army's premier expo is where next-generation c-UAS RF/EW kit (Titan, Pulsar, VAMPIRE variants) debuts and where Army counter-drone procurement priorities and JIATF-401 follow-on signals get read in real time.
November 2026
- 10highPolicyExpiry of China's one-year suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controlsIf Beijing lets the suspension lapse, licensing snaps back on Dy/Tb-bearing NdFeB magnets and extraterritorial re-exports, instantly repricing the scarce ex-China magnet and heavy-RE capacity drones depend on.
- 27highPolicyExpiry of China's suspension of the gallium/germanium/antimony export ban to the USIf the suspension lapses without renewal, germanium snaps back to full embargo (the military end-user ban never lifted), re-tightening IR optics supply overnight and repricing every de-China'd name in the chain.
December 2026
- 31highPolicyFAA Part 108 BVLOS final rule publicationThe final rule would unlock routine beyond-visual-line-of-sight commercial operations — the demand inflection for US-built commercial airframes after the NPRM drew 3,000+ comments and the EO's early-2026 deadline slipped.
January 2027
- 01highPolicyFCC Covered List exemptions sunset for Blue UAS and Buy American dronesWhen the Blue List and Buy American carve-outs lapse, foreign-made content loses FCC equipment authorization even in certified systems — a hard deadline forcing every U.S. OEM to lock in domestic component supply during 2026.
- 01highPolicyNDAA §844/§854 ban on Chinese-melted or fabricated NdFeB/SmCo magnets in DoD systems takes effectDefense drone primes must certify magnets free of Chinese processing at every stage or face contract termination and False Claims Act liability, forcing demand onto the small pool of compliant capacity at MP, USAR and Vulcan.
October 2027
- 01highPolicyNDAA Section 154 ban on Chinese batteries (CATL, BYD, EVE, Gotion, Envision, Hithium) takes effect for DoDStatutory hard stop on DoD procurement of Chinese-made batteries forces primes and drone OEMs to lock multi-year non-Chinese cell supply in advance — the demand transfer that underwrites Amprius, EnerSys Greenville, and Lyten capacity.
Past
- 2026-09-10LightPath fiscal Q4/FY2026 results
- 2026-09-01Commercial UAV Expo 2026 (Las Vegas, Sep 1-3)
- 2026-09-01Commercial UAV Expo 2026, Caesars Forum, Las Vegas (Sept 1-3)
- 2026-09-01Commercial UAV Expo 2026 (Las Vegas, Sept 1-3)
- 2026-08-27Ambarella Q2 FY2027 earnings
- 2026-08-26DroneShield 1H CY2026 results (ASX half-year report)
- 2026-08-26NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earnings
- 2026-08-24Pentagon Drone Dominance 'Gauntlet II' final competition and production down-select (late August)
- 2026-08-12Unusual Machines Q2 2026 results (Q1 was reported May 14; Q2 likely mid-August)
- 2026-08-06MP Materials Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-08-06Motorola Solutions Q2 2026 earnings (Silvus integration color)
- 2026-08-05Amprius Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-29Enovix Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-28RTX Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-28Iridium Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-22Teledyne Q2 2026 earnings (first print after LASSO award)
- 2026-07-15House floor vote on FY27 NDAA (H.R. 8800)
- 2026-07-15Army–RTX Coyote multi-year framework agreement details (guided to ~90 days from mid-April)
- 2026-07-08Senate Armed Services Committee FY27 NDAA markup (expected)
- 2026-06-30AV (AeroVironment) Q4 & FY2026 earnings
- 2026-06-30AeroVironment Q4 & FY2026 results (first full post-BlueHalo fiscal year)
- 2026-06-23AeroVironment FQ4/FY2026 earnings report
- 2026-06-12SpaceX (SPCX) Nasdaq debut — largest IPO in history (prices June 11)